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Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan often says things he does not mean.
In that vein, before and during his official visit to the European Union member states in Central Europe, he said that it is time Brussels made up its mind about Turkey's membership in the EU, and if it does not want Turkey to join, Ankara will look for other options, like membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), a mainly security organization that brings together authoritarian regimes in Asia.
The Foreign Ministry in Ankara was quick to clarify: Turkey's cooperation with the EU and NATO do not constitute an obstacle for improving ties with the SCO. Ties with the SCO do not represent an alternative to the country's membership bid for the EU and its membership in NATO. Soon after, Erdoğan stated that relations with the SCO or the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) had no other meaning than “broadening markets for the country.”
Perhaps the most reasonable interpretation of Erdoğan's diatribes against the EU came from Council of Europe Secretary-General Thorbjorn Jagland, who termed them “a warning shot to opponents of Turkey in the EU.” This may be the case, but it is difficult to understand how such a warning can help bring Turkey closer to the EU. Erdoğan's claim that Turkey has been waiting at the doors of the EU since 1959 or 1963 does not correspond to the facts. Ankara applied for membership in 1987. And is it not clearly necessary for Ankara to first fulfill the criteria of membership before Erdoğan can cry out loud to the EU about making up its mind about Turkey?
I fully agree with Erdoğan on the other hand, that there are quite a few EU members who fall short of fulfilling the criteria, and pursue foreign policies incompatible with the universal values the EU claims to uphold. It is also true that Greek Cyprus was accepted into the EU in outright violation of the criteria, mainly to overcome Athens' threat to veto eastern enlargement.
I would also agree with Erdoğan that it is not only Turkey's failures which explain only 13 of 35 chapters being opened and only one of those having been closed since the start of accession talks in 2005. If EU support for Turkey's accession had continued, the broad popular consensus in Turkey for accession that existed initially might have encouraged Ankara to fulfill the requirements a long time ago. That EU support was denied because many EU member governments, particularly France and Germany, and the majority of citizens in almost all the member states are opposed to Turkish accession. Turkey is regarded as too big, too poor and too Muslim. Turkey may be less poor now, but it is surely (population-wise) bigger, and maybe even more Muslim, although with a constitutionally secular government. I fear that after the end of the Cold War, fear of “Islamic totalitarianism” has replaced the fear of “communist totalitarianism,” at least in a substantial part of Europe, with increasing numbers perceiving Islam to be the “enemy within.”
If the unresolved Cyprus issue is the main reason for stalled progress in accession talks, the main responsibility for failing to solve the problem surely does not lie with Ankara. The EU failed to strongly support the Annan plan and awarded Greek Cyprus, which rejected the plan, with membership. Brussels is about to bail out the bankrupt Greek Cyprus, whose banks launder Russian “black money,” but has no intention of using its leverage to help unify the island. Washington, too, seems to be content with the status quo on the island, perhaps considering that the cooperation between Greek Cyprus and Israel in exploiting energy resources under the Mediterranean will help boost the latter's security. (See: Paul Taylor, The New York Times, Feb. 4, 2013)
My position on Turkey and the EU remains unchanged. Accession talks provide the country with a roadmap for liberalizing its democracy and modernizing its economy. Ankara should stick to this roadmap. If Europe changes its mind and Turkey eventually joins the EU, it will surely benefit a great deal. If not, as Erdoğan says, it surely “would not be the end of the world for Turkey.” What is important for Turkey is to consolidate democracy, the rule of law and human rights. Its interests hinge more on this than anything else.